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Housing Needs Assessment - Development Due Diligence

Housing Needs Assessment
Report

City of Boroondara - LGA, SA2 and Suburb Level Analysis
Response to Victorian State Housing Targets 2025 - With Kew Suburb Focus

Client / Project

Boroondara HNA

Geography

City of Boroondara LGA

State

Victoria

Prepared

May 2026

LGA Overview and Key Indicators

State housing target

65,500

New dwellings to 2051

Population (ABS 2021)

167,900

Inner east Melbourne

Dwellings (ABS 2021)

72,812

+3,504 since 2016

Social housing stock

1.2%

931 dwellings - well below benchmark

Figure 1: Boroondara suburb and locality boundaries. Kew shown highlighted using the ABS ASGS 2021 SAL21336 boundary. Remaining localities from Vicmap Admin locality boundaries. Base map © OpenStreetMap contributors. Surrey Hills, Mont Albert, Glen Iris, Ashburton and Kooyong extend beyond the LGA border.

Dwelling mix (ABS 2021)

Separate house

53%

Medium density

29%

High density

18%

Tenure split (ABS 2021)

Owned outright

42%

Mortgaged

31%

Private rental

22%

Social housing

1.2%

Housing cost context (2024)

Median house price

$2.22M

Median weekly rent

$911

Gross rental yield

2.1%

Suburb breakdown - key housing indicators (ABS 2021 - Homes Victoria Quarterly Rental Report 2025 - DTP targets 2025)

Suburb	Pop. 2021	Dwellings	Avg HH size	Separate house %	Med. rent/wk	Afford. stress	Target share (est.)
Kew (focus)	24,499	10,625	2.48	49%	$950	Moderate	10,200
Camberwell	29,840	12,310	2.55	67%	$880	Moderate	11,800
Hawthorn	22,160	10,980	2.02	24%	$750	High	13,400
Balwyn / Balwyn North	26,400	9,850	2.82	78%	$1,020	Low	8,100
Kew East	11,820	4,680	2.71	68%	$890	Low	5,200
Hawthorn East / Auburn	18,900	8,240	2.26	38%	$800	Moderate	9,800
Remainder LGA	34,281	16,127	2.48	52%	$870	Moderate	8,500
City of Boroondara total	167,900	72,812	2.50	53%	$911	-	65,500

ABS Census 2021VIF 2023 projectionsDTP Housing Targets 2025Homes Victoria Quarterly Rental Report (Sep 2025)Homes Victoria VHR (Dec 2024 quarter)ABS Census 2021 (Boroondara SA2)

Demographic and Population Analysis

Projected pop. 2036 (VIF)

196,600

+28,700 over 15 yrs

Avg. household size

2.50

Declining trend

65+ share (2021)

18%

Up from 15% in 2011

Dwelling target (15 yr)

+9,400

Council Housing Strategy 2023

Figure 2: Boroondara residential building approvals 2019-2025 vs required run-rate to meet state target. Source: ABS Building Approvals (March 2026 release).

Figure 3: Boroondara age profile 2021 vs VIF 2036 projection. The 65+ cohort is the fastest growing segment. Source: ABS 2021, VIF 2023.

Demographic context: Boroondara's 65+ population grew from 15% of residents in 2011 to 18% in 2021 and is projected to climb further. This ageing profile is set against an LGA where the dominant housing form - the large detached house in the 50% bracket - is poorly matched to the needs of older residents seeking smaller, accessible dwellings close to services. The LGA's household size of 2.50 is declining and lone-person households are a growing share of the total. Demand for 1 and 2 bedroom dwellings in activity centre locations is likely to strengthen, but supply in those configurations remains limited outside Hawthorn.

Projected new dwellings required by type and tenure - 2025 to 2051 (VIF 2023 base)

Dwelling type	Very low income	Low income	Moderate income	Market	Total	% of need
Separate house (3-4 bed)	120	280	1,400	6,700	8,500	13%
Townhouse (2-3 bed)	640	1,100	4,800	9,860	16,400	24%
Apartment (1-2 bed)	1,280	2,100	8,600	20,120	32,100	48%
Specialist / aged / other	480	820	2,400	6,300	10,000	15%
Total	2,520	4,300	17,200	42,980	65,500	100%

Housing Supply and Affordability

Approvals 2024-25 (ABS)

1,232

vs 2,500/yr target run-rate

Median house price rise

+215%

2006-2021 (income: +57%)

Social housing (2024)

931

1.2% of stock - ranked 27/31 metro LGAs

Affordable lettings Q3 2024

Quarter total for whole LGA

Figure 4: Rental affordability by income quintile. Lower quintile access in Boroondara is among the most constrained in metropolitan Melbourne. Source: Homes Victoria Quarterly Rental Report 2025, ABS 2021.

Figure 5: Boroondara median house price growth vs median household income growth 2006-2021 (indexed to 2006=100). Source: DELWP property sales data, ABS Census 2021.

Affordability gap: Between 2006 and 2021 the median house price in Boroondara rose by 215% while median household income grew by only 57%. The resulting 158 percentage point gap represents one of the largest price-to-income divergences across metropolitan Melbourne over that period. Only 3% of private rentals in the LGA are affordable to the lowest income quintile - placing Boroondara at the extreme end of the accessibility spectrum. Social housing at 1.2% of stock is the lowest in the inner east and ranks 27th out of 31 Greater Melbourne LGAs by social housing share.

State Housing Targets Assessment

Source: Plan for Victoria (February 2025) - DTP Housing Targets dataset - Boroondara Council response June 2024 - Housing Statement Reform Act 2025

TARGET 01

65,500 new dwellings to 2051 - approx. 2,500 dwellings per year

Critical gap - 300% above recent run-rate

Current run-rate (1,232 pa / 2,500 pa target)49%

Projected dwelling growth 2024-2044 (DTP VIF 2023)11,000 / 65,500 (16%)

Activity centre programs announced (Kew Jnct, Hawthorn, Glenferrie, Auburn)4 of 79 LGA centres

Boroondara Council has publicly noted that the 65,500 target represents a 300% increase on historical annual approvals. The current run-rate of 1,232 dwellings per year (2024-25, ABS Building Approvals) is less than half the required pace. Victoria in Future 2023 (DTP) projects 11,000 additional dwellings in Boroondara between 2024 and 2044 under current zone settings - a fraction of what the state target requires.

TARGET 02

70% infill - activity centre and station precinct focus

Depends on activity centre program delivery

Activity centres with DTP plans announced (Kew Jnct, Hawthorn, Glenferrie, Auburn)4 centres

Share of LGA approvals in activity centre locations (est. 2022-24)~38%

The Victorian Government's Activity Centre Program has identified four centres in Boroondara - Kew Junction, Hawthorn, Glenferrie and Auburn - for new planning controls. These centres will carry the weight of most required infill delivery. Outside these nodes, GRZ8's 9 metre mandatory height and 35% garden area requirements constrain medium density development across the residential hinterland.

TARGET 03

Social housing: reach 4.5 per 100 private dwellings (Infrastructure Victoria benchmark)

Severely below benchmark - direct investment essential

Current social housing share (1.2% / 931 dwellings)1.2%

Infrastructure Victoria benchmark (4.5%)4.5%

With only 931 social housing dwellings as at June 2024 - ranked 27th of 31 Greater Melbourne LGAs by proportion - Boroondara has the lowest social housing share of any inner-eastern LGA. Reaching the 4.5% benchmark against the 2051 dwelling base of approximately 140,000 dwellings would require around 5,370 social dwellings - an increase of approximately 4,440 over the current stock. This cannot be delivered through the planning system alone. Homes Victoria identified Boroondara as one of the five highest social housing demand LGAs in 2021 (VAGO 2024).

Figure 6: Indicative housing capacity by zone and change area. Total feasible capacity estimated at ~42,800 dwellings - well short of the 65,500 target on current zone settings. Source: DTP HCAP methodology, Boroondara Planning Scheme, ABS Mesh Block 2021.

Separate house share

49%

Below LGA avg of 53%

Med / high density

51%

Above LGA avg of 47%

Median weekly rent

~$950

Above LGA median of $911

Target share (est.)

10,200

Of 65,500 LGA target

Figure 7: Kew planning controls - schematic. GRZ8 dominates the residential area. C1Z at Kew Junction is the primary opportunity node. HO precincts affect significant portions of Studley Park surrounds and the eastern edge. LSIO applies near the Yarra. Verify all controls via VicPlan prior to any application.

Zone split - Kew suburb

GRZ8 residential

62%

C1Z commercial

12%

NRZ neighbourhood

14%

LSIO / flood overlay

Heritage Overlay land

Approved height benchmarks by zone (VCAT 2023-24)

Boroondara GRZ8

9m max

Kew Jnct C1Z

16m

Stonnington GRZ

11m

Yarra City

14m

Melbourne City

24m+

Figure 8: Boroondara residential permit activity (left) and VCAT outcome trend (right) 2020-2024. Council's success rate at VCAT has strengthened over the period. Source: DELWP PPAR, Boroondara Council data, VCAT decisions database.

Kew - Planning Context and Development Issues

Kew in context: Kew is the second largest suburb in Boroondara by population and has higher medium and high density stock (51%) than the LGA average, driven largely by development along Cotham Road and around Kew Junction. Half of its dwellings remain separate houses, many on large lots with significant heritage and vegetation constraints. The suburb is served by tram routes 48 and 109 and sits within 8km of the CBD. Kew Junction is designated as a Neighbourhood Activity Centre and is one of four Boroondara centres included in the Victorian Government's Activity Centre Program - the primary mechanism through which Kew will contribute to the state housing target.

KEW 01

Kew Junction Activity Centre - the primary housing delivery node

Critical

Kew Junction C1Z carries the weight of meaningful housing delivery within the suburb. The Victorian Government's Activity Centre Program has flagged Kew Junction for new planning controls. Three to four storey built form has been approved at the junction where ground floor retail activation is retained and upper levels respond to heritage interfaces. The C1Z currently covers approximately 12% of the suburb - future uplift through DTP Activity Centre controls is the primary mechanism for increasing housing yield. Applications within or immediately adjacent to the junction should be designed to the upper range of what the centre can absorb.

KEW 02

Heritage Overlay - the primary site constraint

Critical

Heritage precincts dominate the Studley Park surrounds, the eastern Kew residential streets and parts of Cotham Road. An HO designation - individual or precinct - is the first thing to verify on any site. A heritage impact assessment by a recognised practitioner is non-negotiable. Council will engage its own advisor and budget for peer review risk. VCAT decisions in Kew consistently confirm that Council's HO evidence base is well prepared and actively used.

KEW 03

GRZ8 schedule - 9 metre height cap and 35% garden area

Critical

GRZ8 is Boroondara's signature restrictive residential schedule. The mandatory 9 metre height cap and the 35% minimum garden area requirement are hard floors on 62% of Kew's land. On standard lots of 650-800sqm, the garden area requirement alone determines maximum developable footprint before setbacks, overlooking or shadowing are even considered. Two-lot Torrens title subdivision on lots under 1,000sqm is consistently refused where the schedule cannot be met. Run the numbers before exchange.

KEW 04

Vegetation and tree impacts

High

Kew has high canopy cover, reflecting a combination of large private gardens, Significant Tree Register protections and Vegetation Protection Overlay provisions. An arborist report is required for most residential permit applications. Tree removal runs as a parallel process to planning permits and can be independently contested. On sites with mature canopy trees, a pre-application arborist assessment is worth commissioning before any design is locked in.

KEW 05

LSIO and drainage near the Yarra

Medium

Sites near Gardiner's Creek and the Yarra floodplain carry Land Subject to Inundation Overlay controls requiring hydraulic assessment. Even sites not directly within LSIO may face drainage challenges given the topography of Kew's southern edge towards Studley Park. Check DELWP flood mapping and Melbourne Water drainage overlays before proceeding to design.

Submission - Response to State Housing Targets

Section 1 - Council position on the housing target

The City of Boroondara accepts that the Victorian Government has set a housing target of 65,500 new dwellings to 2051 for the LGA under the Plan for Victoria (February 2025). Council does not dispute that housing growth is needed in well-located areas. It disputes the deliverability of the target under current zone settings and without a committed infrastructure program.

The 65,500 figure represents a 300% increase on Boroondara's current annual approval rate of approximately 1,200 dwellings per year. Council has formally noted that releasing targets of this scale without corresponding commitments to public open space, drainage, education facilities, health services and transport infrastructure is irresponsible planning. Developers build housing - councils cannot compel them to lodge or build. The existence of a planning target does not guarantee delivery.

Council requests that the state government clarify whether the target is a planning capacity measure or a delivery obligation, confirm infrastructure funding commitments that will accompany any uplift in residential zoning and acknowledge the gap between theoretical planning capacity and market-driven actual construction, which across Victoria currently stands at thousands of approved but unbuilt dwellings.

Boroondara's position: growth yes - but targeted, infrastructure-supported and realistic. A 300% increase in delivery with no state infrastructure budget is not a housing plan.

Section 2 - Activity centre program and Kew Junction

Council acknowledges the Victorian Government's Activity Centre Program which has identified Kew Junction, Hawthorn, Glenferrie and Auburn as priority centres for new planning controls. These four centres represent the most realistic mechanism for meaningful infill housing delivery in Boroondara given the constraints that GRZ8 imposes across the residential hinterland.

Council supports 3 to 4 storey mixed-use development at Kew Junction where ground-floor activation is retained and built form responds to adjoining heritage interfaces. For sites immediately outside the C1Z boundary, Council's position is that the activity centre controls should extend to a clearly defined and evidence-based walkable catchment - not arbitrarily into the residential hinterland. Heritage and neighbourhood character evidence must remain a live consideration in any uplift area.

On Kew Junction: the junction can grow - but the evidence base matters and the heritage interface must be respected.

Section 3 - Social and affordable housing

With 931 social housing dwellings representing 1.2% of LGA stock - the lowest rate in the inner east and 27th of 31 Greater Melbourne LGAs - Boroondara has a documented and growing deficit. Homes Victoria identified Boroondara as one of the five highest demand LGAs in metropolitan Melbourne as at 2021 (VAGO 2024). This demand is not being met through current stock levels or pipeline.

Council calls for a binding Homes Victoria investment commitment to Boroondara as part of the housing targets program. A minimum affordable housing contribution - embedded through Section 173 Agreements in future Activity Centre developments - should be negotiated at the time planning controls are established, not left as a voluntary measure dependent on individual developer appetite.

Social housing: Boroondara has the highest demand pressure and the lowest stock proportion in the inner east. The state must invest directly.

Key Evidence Requirements

EVIDENCE 01

Activity centre capacity and feasibility modelling - Kew Junction and others

Critical

DTP and Council should jointly commission a housing capacity and development feasibility assessment for each of the four Activity Centres before planning controls are gazetted. Without feasibility testing at current construction costs and rental yields, there is a real risk that uplift is zoned but not built - replicating the statewide pattern of approved-but-undelivered dwellings.

EVIDENCE 02

Infrastructure gap analysis across all four activity centres

Critical

Drainage, open space, school capacity, community health and transport network impacts should be assessed for each centre before uplift controls commence. The infrastructure contributions levy framework (effective January 2027) provides a partial mechanism - but state budget commitments for major items like open space and transport are needed to underwrite confidence in the program.

EVIDENCE 03

Heritage and neighbourhood character evidence base - Kew suburb

High

Boroondara's Residential Neighbourhood Character Study (2022) is the most actively deployed character evidence base at VCAT in metropolitan Melbourne. For Kew specifically, Council should update site-by-site heritage status assessments for non-contributory sites within HO precincts - this is the most direct mechanism for recovering developable capacity without compromising the heritage values the overlay protects.

Appendix: Data Sources and Methodology

Source	Publisher	Description	Date
ABS Census 2021 (TableBuilder, SA2 and suburb)	Australian Bureau of Statistics	Population, dwelling structure, tenure, household composition and income by SA2 and suburb. Kew suburb data sourced directly from ABS Census 2021 TableBuilder.	2021
Victoria in Future (VIF) 2023	Dept of Transport and Planning, VIC	Official state population and household projections by LGA to 2056. High/medium/low series. Council's own 15-year projection of +28,700 residents and +9,400 dwellings is consistent with VIF medium series.	2023
DFFH Rental Report	Dept of Families, Fairness and Housing	Quarterly rental bond data including median rents, affordable lettings by bedroom type and vacancy indicators. September quarter 2024 data used for affordability analysis.	2024
DTP Housing Targets 2025	Dept of Transport and Planning, VIC	LGA-level housing targets as published in Plan for Victoria February 2025. Boroondara target confirmed at 65,500 new dwellings to 2051.	2025
Homes Victoria Victorian Housing Register (VHR) and Social Housing Register	Dept of Families, Fairness and Housing	Social housing dwellings by LGA as at June 2024. Boroondara confirmed at 931 social housing dwellings.	2024
ABS Building Approvals (formerly 8731.0)	Australian Bureau of Statistics	Residential building approvals by LGA - annual and quarterly series. Latest release: March 2026 (ABS).. Boroondara 2024-25: 1,232 dwellings approved.	2024-25
VAGO - Planning Social Housing (2024)	Victorian Auditor-General's Office	Performance audit of Homes Victoria's planning and delivery of social housing including LGA-level demand modelling. Boroondara identified as top-5 demand LGA as at 2021.	2024
DTP Planning Permit Activity Report (PPAR)	Dept of Transport and Planning, VIC	Annual planning application data across all Victorian councils including residential categories and decision outcomes.	2024
VCAT Planning Decisions Database	Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal	Register of planning decisions at VCAT including outcomes and grounds. Searched for Boroondara and Kew decisions 2020-2024.	2020-2024
Boroondara Housing Statistics (Council)	City of Boroondara	Council-published housing statistics covering dwelling type, social housing stock, building approvals and housing cost trends. Underpinned by ABS Census 2021 and DTP data.	2024
Boroondara Housing Strategy 2023	City of Boroondara	Adopted September 2023. Three strategic directions for housing growth with a 15-year projection basis. Council's own target of +9,400 dwellings to 2038.	2023
Boroondara Residential Neighbourhood Character Study	City of Boroondara	Neighbourhood character profiles for all Boroondara precincts. Frequently cited in VCAT proceedings as the primary character evidence base for the LGA.	2022
Boroondara Planning Scheme (VicPlan / VMPLAN)	City of Boroondara / DTP	GRZ8 schedule controls, NRZ schedule controls, C1Z provisions, Heritage Overlay schedules and Neighbourhood Character Overlay. Verified via VicPlan May 2026 (updated weekly).	Current
Planning Practice Note 90 (PPN90) - Planning for Housing	Dept of Transport and Planning, VIC	Primary guidance for housing strategy preparation and change area framework methodology.	Current
DELWP / Melbourne Water LSIO mapping	Melbourne Water / DELWP	Land Subject to Inundation Overlay spatial data accessed via data.vic.gov.au for Kew flood risk assessment context.	Current
Property price data	DELWP (property sales statistics)	Median house price trends in Boroondara 2006-2021. Compiled by Boroondara Council via housing statistics page.	2021

Methodology notes

This report draws on publicly available Victorian and Australian government data sources current as at May 2026. Dwelling type, tenure and income data are drawn directly from ABS Census 2021 (TableBuilder, LGA21110 and Kew suburb geography). Rental affordability is derived from Homes Victoria Quarterly Rental Report data cross-referenced with ABS 2021 income quintiles - a household is treated as experiencing rental stress when housing costs exceed 30% of gross income. Housing capacity estimates follow the DTP Housing Capacity Assessment Platform (HCAP) methodology: theoretical capacity is zone area multiplied by assumed density; feasible capacity subtracts land subject to Heritage Overlay, Significant Landscape Overlay, Environmental Significance Overlay and Special Building Overlay. Kew suburb target share is estimated based on population proportion and accessibility weighting relative to LGA total. Charts and figures are prepared for briefing and analysis purposes only and do not constitute a formal planning or legal opinion. All planning controls and overlay status must be verified against the current Boroondara Planning Scheme via VicPlan prior to any application.

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Housing Needs AssessmentReport

LGA Overview and Key Indicators

Demographic and Population Analysis

Housing Supply and Affordability

State Housing Targets Assessment

Kew - Planning Context and Development Issues

Submission - Response to State Housing Targets

Key Evidence Requirements

Appendix: Data Sources and Methodology

Housing Needs Assessment
Report