Place AU
Deliverable
Capacity Index
Zoned capacity is a theory. The DCI measures what is commercially buildable at current costs and values, SA2 by SA2, every quarter. Government data only. No commercial property databases. No synthetic valuations. Every figure is traceable to its source.
Eight sections. Every figure sourced.
Not a dashboard to interpret. A quarterly position to use: the deliverable capacity number, the map behind it, the leakage diagnosis and the trajectory verdict, each figure carrying its source vintage.
S01Executive position
The quarterly RAG verdict in one panel: whether deliverable capacity covers the remaining target at observed take-up rates, which SA2s carry the shortfall and what moved since last quarter.
S02Deliverable capacity by SA2
A choropleth map and table: every SA2 in the LGA scored by deliverable share of theoretical capacity. Green, amber or red. Built on real ABS ASGS 2021 boundaries.
S03Capacity waterfall by typology
Theoretical yield reduced in three observable steps to deliverable capacity, per typology per SA2. Apartments, townhouses, greenfield lots. Each step computed from a government dataset.
S04Pipeline and leakage
DTP Urban Development Program project status reconciled against approvals and completions. Where dwellings stall between permit and keys, and how much is sitting in the Possible band.
S05Target trajectory
Run rate against the Plan for Victoria 2051 target. Required annual pace, observed pace, deliverable cover of remaining target. The three ratios that produce the RAG position.
S06Methodology and models
The three-layer model, the viability gate parameters, the take-up caveat. Published, configurable, cited. Built to be taken into a scheme review or DTP negotiation.
S07Data sources and vintages
Every input: custodian, role in the model, licence and refresh cadence. Per-figure vintage tracking and version change detection between editions.
S08Limitations and confidence
High confidence, modelled and indicative categories applied per output. SA2 resolution noted. Not a site valuation, not financial advice. Honest about what the model can and cannot claim.
Retrieve first. Explain second.
Every statistic is fetched from a government source before any narrative is written. The model explains figures already retrieved and validated. It never generates a number.
Theoretical capacity
Zoned dwelling yield per parcel cluster from Vicmap Planning zone geometry and Vicmap Property parcels, with published yield rates per zone and typology. Heritage, flooding and environmental overlays deducted using the overlay geometry itself, not an allowance.
Viability gate
A residual value screen per SA2 and typology. Achievable revenue is proxied from the Valuer-General Victorian Property Sales Report. Cost is benchmarked and indexed quarterly with the ABS Producer Price Index for building construction. A published 20% margin hurdle on total development cost gates each typology in each SA2.
Delivery reconciliation
DTP Urban Development Program project status, PPARS permit flow and ABS Building Approvals and completions joined to the Plan for Victoria 2051 target. This produces the leakage diagnosis and the quarterly RAG verdict.
AI explains, never invents
Only once the figures are locked does the Statement write the plain-English read. The AI layer narrates retrieved and validated data. A post-hoc validation pass checks every figure in the narrative against the retrieved data before publication.
Government data only. Always.
No commercial AVM, no synthetic valuations, no third-party property databases. Every input traces to a named government custodian with a published licence and a stated refresh cadence.
Three councils. Every mode of the model.
The v1 Index is being built on three Victorian pilots, each chosen to prove a different mode of the model. Foundation subscribers lock founding pricing and shape the Statement format.
City of Yarra
The hardest apartment viability test in the state. Dense infill across MUZ, RGZ and commercial zones. Heritage overlay coverage among the highest of any comparable LGA.
View the sample Statement →Cardinia Shire
Full greenfield machinery. Officer-Pakenham East PSP corridor plus rural township infill. Tests all three UDP supply stages and the infill versus greenfield sub-target split growth area councils carry.
Greater Bendigo
Regional delivery mode outside metropolitan UDP coverage. Forces the flow-based leakage layer using PPARS versus completions, proving the model in conditions that apply to all non-metro Victorian councils.
The Yarra sample is the full Statement.
Not a stripped-down preview. All eight sections, real ABS ASGS 2021 boundaries, the capacity waterfall, the leakage diagnosis, the target trajectory and the full methodology. What you receive each quarter is what you see here.
View the City of Yarra sample →Before you subscribe
How is this different from a precinct feasibility study?
A commissioned feasibility study tests one precinct, one set of assumptions, once. It is stale the moment construction costs or land values move. The DCI re-runs every quarter for the whole LGA, so a council always has a current answer. A precinct study tells you what was feasible the day it was run. The DCI tells you whether it is still feasible next quarter and whether it is actually getting built.
Why government data only? Why not a commercial AVM?
Commercial automated valuation models create structural procurement risk for councils with open-source data policies, and reputational risk if the methodology is challenged in a planning scheme review. Every DCI input is traceable to a named government custodian with a published licence. The Statement cites the provenance chain for every figure, which is what a council needs to defend a position at DTP.
What does SA2 resolution mean for accuracy?
DCI resolves at SA2 level in v1, not parcel level. It is a strategic capacity instrument, not a site valuation. The viability gate applies a residual value screen per SA2 and typology using government-sourced revenue and cost benchmarks. The output tells you where capacity concentrates and where it fails the viability test, which is exactly what a housing strategy or LSPS review requires. Parcel-level feasibility for specific development sites is a separate exercise for a development consultant.
Which Victorian councils can subscribe?
The v1 build is focused on metropolitan and regional Victoria. The Foundation pilot covers City of Yarra, Cardinia Shire and Greater Bendigo. Foundation subscribers shape the Statement format and receive founding pricing. NSW expansion is in view once the Victorian model is validated.
Can developers and investors subscribe, not just councils?
Yes. The DCI serves both audiences with different reads of the same data. Councils use the Statement to demonstrate and defend scheme capacity. Developers and investors use it as an opportunity radar: where deliverable capacity concentrates by typology, where councils sit behind trajectory and where policy pressure is likely to land next.
How is pricing set?
Pricing is POA and varies by LGA and subscriber type. Foundation cohort pricing is available for the first five subscribers across the three pilot LGAs. Contact us to discuss scope and terms.