Place AU
City of Yarra
Of the housing capacity theoretically permitted by the Yarra Planning Scheme, how much is commercially deliverable at current costs and values, where does it sit, and is delivery tracking to target. Every figure is retrieved from a government source before narration. The model explains, it never invents.
EXECUTIVE POSITION
Quarterly position: Amber | Watch
In a live edition this panel states the position in three sentences: whether deliverable capacity covers the remaining target at observed take-up rates, which SA2s carry the shortfall and what moved since last quarter. The verdict is computed, then narrated. It is written to be taken directly into a briefing, an LSPS review or a negotiation with the Department of Transport and Planning.
DELIVERABLE CAPACITY BY SA2
| SA2 | Theoretical | Deliverable | Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading SA2 geography from ABS ASGS 2021... | ||||
CAPACITY WATERFALL BY TYPOLOGY
The core DCI calculation. Theoretical capacity is reduced in three observable steps to arrive at deliverable capacity. Each step is computed from a government dataset, never assumed.
Apartments (Mixed Use, Commercial 1, Residential Growth zones)
Townhouses (General Residential zones)
Adaptive reuse and small infill
PIPELINE AND LEAKAGE
Deliverable capacity means nothing if the pipeline leaks. This section reconciles project status from the DTP Urban Development Program against approvals and completions flow, and quantifies where dwellings stall between permit and keys.
The Possible band is the leakage signal. It captures projects with lapsed permits or years of inactivity, straight from the UDP timing classification. A live edition names the SA2s where stalled stock concentrates, tracks movement between bands each quarter and pairs the site view with the flow view: ABS approvals against completions, the attrition every council gets blamed for but few can diagnose.
TARGET TRAJECTORY
Delivery against the Plan for Victoria 2051 target, using the same combined Building Approvals series that powers the Place AU Housing Target Delivery Tracker. The trajectory test is simple: at the observed run rate, does deliverable capacity get consumed before or after the target date, and is the run rate itself sufficient.
Three ratios produce the quarterly RAG position. Green requires both sufficient run rate and sufficient deliverable cover. Amber flags one failing leg. Red flags both, the position that invites scheme intervention. The final target figure is read from the Place AU tracker dataset, never typed by hand.
INFRASTRUCTURE CONTRIBUTION YIELD
Deliverable capacity converts to revenue only when dwellings reach a payment trigger. This section states the contribution yield the deliverable pipeline produces per quarter at the observed take-up rate, using the rates published in the Yarra Planning Scheme and by the Department of Transport and Planning. It is the question every council finance team asks the moment a capacity number is put in front of them.
Instruments that apply in Yarra
Quarterly yield at current take-up
| SA2 | Nominal DCP charge area | Rate per dwelling | Dwellings to trigger, per quarter | Quarterly yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Computing contribution yield... | ||||
Timing, not approval
Yield is recognised at the payment trigger and not at permit. Under the Yarra DCP the levy falls due before issue of a building permit, before works commence where no building permit is required, or before a Statement of Compliance where the trigger is subdivision. A model that recognises contribution revenue at approval will overstate near term receipts and understate the lag. DCI reports the trigger point with the figure.
What changes if the activity centre levy is approved for Yarra
Yarra sits inside the Inner Melbourne Train and Tram Zone, which the Department treats separately from the ten pilot centres and the forty eight centres in Stages 1 and 2. Planning controls for Yarra have been approved, covering Fitzroy, Collingwood, Richmond and Alphington. The infrastructure contributions plan has not. The Department states that a standard infrastructure contributions plan requiring $11,350 for each new home will apply in Yarra if approved. A different and higher rate is proposed for Macaulay in the City of Melbourne, which confirms that inner Melbourne is not being treated as a single contributions area.
Where a council development contributions plan is already in place the Department states the council allocation is reduced by the existing DCP rate amount. Yarra has a municipality wide DCP, so any offset would apply across the whole municipality rather than to a subset of sites. The published split is two thirds to council and one third to the state, stated as $7,567 and $3,783 per dwelling in FY2026-27.
| Scenario | Per dwelling | Council share | State share | Quarterly yield at current take-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Computing forward yield... | ||||
AFFORDABLE HOUSING SENSITIVITY
The question a housing strategy has to answer is not how much affordable housing a council would like. It is how much the deliverable pipeline can absorb before deliverable capacity starts falling. This section re-runs the S03 viability gate with an affordable housing obligation applied as a cost, stepping from zero to twenty per cent in one per cent increments at SA2 level.
The three mechanisms, as Victoria publishes them
Clause 53.23 of the Victoria Planning Provisions sets a ten per cent affordable housing requirement for significant residential development approved through the Development Facilitation Program. The Department publishes three acquittal routes: ten per cent of dwellings sold at a thirty per cent discount to a registered housing agency or Homes Victoria, or three per cent of dwellings gifted; a cash contribution equal to three per cent of residential development cost to the Social Housing Growth Fund; or discounted rental in a build to rent project acquitted to the same value. Outside that pathway, Victorian practice is negotiated and site specific, secured by agreement under section 173 of the Planning and Environment Act 1987.
Where the pipeline turns
The curves are stepwise, not smooth. Dwellings are discrete and projects fail the gate one at a time, so capacity holds flat while the obligation sits below the thinnest margin in the stock then falls as successive projects cross the hurdle. The erosion point below is defined explicitly as the lowest set-aside at which deliverable capacity across the municipality falls more than five per cent below the zero per cent baseline. Any other definition produces a different number, which is precisely why the definition is published alongside the figure.
By SA2
| SA2 | Deliverable at 0% | First loss, gifting | First loss, 30% discount | First loss, cash equivalent | Deliverable at 10% | Deliverable at 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Computing sensitivity by SA2... | ||||||
What the model does and does not claim
The viability calculation is a residual value screen. Gross development value less construction cost, finance, selling costs, developer profit and the affordable housing contribution, tested against a benchmark land value. Revenue is proxied from the Valuer-General Victorian Property Sales Report and cost is indexed quarterly with the ABS Producer Price Index for building construction, the same inputs that drive the S03 gate. The affordable dwellings remain in the total yield with their construction cost retained. Modelling a set-aside as simply fewer market dwellings understates the burden and is not done here.
METHODOLOGY AND MODELS
Retrieve then explain
Every statistic is fetched deterministically from a government source before any narrative is generated. The AI layer explains figures already retrieved and validated. It does not produce numbers. A post-hoc validation pass checks every figure in the narrative against the retrieved data before publication, the same architecture behind every Place AU report.
Layer 1: Theoretical capacity
Zoned dwelling yield per parcel cluster from Vicmap Planning zone geometry and Vicmap Property parcels, with published yield rates per zone and typology. Heritage, flooding, environmental and other overlay constraints are deducted using the overlay geometry itself, not an allowance.
Layer 2: Viability gate
A residual value screen per SA2 and typology. Achievable revenue is proxied from the Valuer-General Victorian Property Sales Report. Cost is benchmarked and indexed quarterly with the ABS Producer Price Index for building construction. A development margin hurdle of 20 percent on cost, the conventional feasibility threshold, gates each typology in each SA2. The hurdle is a published, configurable parameter, not a hidden assumption.
Layer 3: Delivery reconciliation
UDP project status, PPARS permit flow and ABS approvals and completions joined to the target trajectory. The reconciliation layer produces the quarterly RAG position.
DATA SOURCES AND VINTAGES
| Dataset | Custodian | Role in model | Licence | Refresh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicmap Planning | DTP | Zones and overlays, Layer 1 | CC BY 4.0 | Continuous |
| Vicmap Property | DTP | Parcel geometry, Layer 1 | CC BY 4.0 | Continuous |
| Victorian Property Sales Report | Valuer-General Victoria | Revenue proxy, Layer 2 | State of Victoria | Quarterly |
| Producer Price Index, building construction | ABS | Cost indexation, Layer 2 | CC BY 4.0 | Quarterly |
| Urban Development Program 2025 | DTP (DEECA publication) | Project pipeline and status, Layer 3 | CC BY 4.0 | Annual |
| Building Approvals 8731.0 | ABS | Approvals flow, Layer 3 | CC BY 4.0 | Monthly |
| PPARS permit activity | DTP | Permit flow, Layer 3 | State of Victoria | Quarterly |
| Plan for Victoria 2051 targets (final) | DTP | Target trajectory, Layer 3 | State of Victoria | Static |
| ASGS 2021 boundaries | ABS | All geography | CC BY 4.0 | Static |
| Yarra Development Contributions Plan 2019 | Yarra City Council | DIL and CIL rates by charge area, S06 | Incorporated document, Yarra Planning Scheme | Indexed 1 August |
| Train and tram zone activity centre ICP rates (proposed) | DTP | Conditional forward yield, S06 | State of Victoria | Indexed 1 July |
| Plans for inner Melbourne | DTP | Applicability of the proposed ICP to Yarra, S06 | State of Victoria | On revision |
| Growth areas infrastructure contribution rates | State Revenue Office Victoria | Applicability screen, S06 | State of Victoria | Indexed 1 July |
| VPP clause 53.23 and DFP guidance | DTP | Affordable housing mechanisms and rates, S07 | State of Victoria | On amendment |
LIMITATIONS AND CONFIDENCE
High confidence Geography, zoning geometry, overlay deductions, approvals and completions flow, target figures. Directly retrieved, deterministic.
Modelled Viability gate outputs. Sound, published method with configurable parameters, sensitive to cost and value movement. Reported with the parameter set that produced them.
Indicative Forward trajectory. Construction is cyclical and take-up governs conversion. Trajectory statements are conditional on observed run rates and are labelled as such.
DCI resolves at SA2 level in v1, not parcel level. It is a strategic capacity instrument, not a site valuation, and no output constitutes financial or investment advice.